Predicting the loss from optic disc drusen using AI-mediated 3D structural analysis of optic coherence tomography
Frank Mazza
Schulich School of Medicine & Dentistry
FUNDER: Schulich-Windsor Campus Opportunities for Research Excellence Program (SWORP)
GRANT DURATION: 2026-2027
Optic disc drusen affect 145 million people worldwide, causing unpredictable and irreversible vision loss in up to 87% of patients[1]. Sometimes presenting in childhood, these calcified deposits compress optic nerve fibers, necessitating close clinical monitoring[2]. Yet, the clinical course of drusen is highly variable, and clinicians lack reliable predictors of vision loss, leaving patients uncertain about prognosis and dependent on years of repeated imaging. Growing evidence suggests that vision loss may be driven by interactions between drusen morphology (size, location), and patient factors (age, vascular anatomy, compliance)[3]. Optical coherence tomography (OCT) provides non-invasive, near-cellular resolution 3D imaging of the eye and is now the standard for detecting and monitoring drusen[4]. However, the scale and complexity of OCT datasets make manual analysis impractical in routine care, leaving a critical unmet need for automated approaches that can transform imaging data into clinically meaningful prognostic information[5]. In this project, we will analyze previously collected OCT imaging and clinical data from 400 patients with drusen to determine long-term predictors of vision loss. We will develop an explainable artificial intelligence (AI) approach that (i) applies a validated model to automatically detect and characterize drusen, and (ii) builds a predictive model integrating ocular and patient features to predict vision loss at 5 years. By identifying the structural and biological drivers of drusen progression, this work will use explainable AI to shift monitoring from reactive surveillance to predictive, personalized care – enabling early identification of high-risk patients and more targeted management before irreversible vision loss occurs
By integrating automated ODD quantification with longitudinal prognostic modeling of vision loss, we expect to: 1. Leverage a validated AI model to systematically identify and quantify ODD features from OCT images. 2. Develop an AI model that predicts 5-year vision loss and risk-stratifies patients using ODD features and patient clinical factors (R², Cohen’s kappa) 3. Identify the individual contributions of ODD and systemic features to vision loss using SHAP-based feature importance analysis. 4. Identify synergistic interactions between ODD and systemic features that jointly influence vision loss.